Friday, 8 March 2013

Egypt: When Logic Fails

For the average spectator on affairs in Egypt, making sense of events and situations tends to be an exercise in futility; as since the majority of average spectators are not "in the loop", the events tend to make little sense.

As a result, people tend to react in one of two ways; emotionally (and that's a topic for another time) or logically. But ah, there's the rub; What about when logic fails?

I argued long ago in a personal post that there is no real logic, and in this case it's even more applicable; for there is no definite uniform "logic" nor exact "guidelines" to achieve a standard definition of logic, as such Logic differs from one person to the next. But for the sake of this post, let us assume that logic is absolute, after all, the very basis of logic and deduction is If A= B, and B = C, then A = C.

But again, I'm not here to discuss philosophy, so let's return to my original question... What about when logic fails?

In regards to Egypt, the "logical" observer attempting to make sense of things, has no choice but to resort to logical deduction, to do so, the observer gathers what information they can , and proceeds to come to a conclusion based on the information provided. But as I stated above, unless the observer is "in the loop" they don't have access to all the information, and as thus they can never really reach the proper deduction unless by absolute chance. Therefore, logic in this case, has failed.

So what's the solution? To deduce as best you can with the info you are able to obtain, and live with your conclusion, right or wrong? To forgo logic altogether and rely purely on emotion? Do you reach the best conclusion you can, and constantly revise it when you obtain new information? Or do you close your brain off, and just rely on whatever you're told? Or do you do something else entirely?

If anyone has an answer to this question, I'd like to know it, but above all think about this before you're too judgmental towards others.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Egypt: Tourism in numbers 1995-2012

A quick breakdown of Egyptian tourism figures between 1995-2012 with some minor notes.

YearValueNumerical Difference to pervious year% difference to previous YearNotes
19983,213,000-443,000-12.12%Decline thought to be caused mainly by The Luxor Massacre that took place on 17 November 1997, at Deir el-Bahri, an archaeological site located across the River Nile from Luxor in Egypt. In the mid-morning attack, Islamic terrorists from Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya ("The Islamic Group") and Talaa'al al-Fateh (Vanguards of Conquest), massacred 62 tourists at the attraction, their modus operandi included beheadings and disembowellings.
20014,357,000-759,000-14.84%Decline believed to be the result of two major events; The start of second Palestinian Intifada (also known as the Al-Aqsa Intifada) and the resulting support protests in Egypt, as well as the Terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11th 2001 
200911,914,000-382,000-3.11%Decline believe to be the result of three main factors:

The Sudan kidnapping In September 2008, in which a group of eleven European tourists and eight Egyptians were kidnapped during an adventure safari to one of the remotest sites in Egypt deep in the Sahara desert and taken to Sudan. They were subsequently released unharmed.

The 2009 Khan el-Khalili bombing: In February 2009, the Khan el-Khalili bombing killed a French schoolgirl on a class trip.

The 2009 Hezbollah plot: In April 2009, Egypt said it had uncovered a Hezbollah plot to attack tourist sites in the Sinai, causing tension with the Shia group from Lebanon.
20119,845,000-4,206,000-29.93%Decline caused primarily by the January 25th revolution of 2011.

It is worthy to note that while tourism figures have increased in 2012 as opposed to 2010, they are still significantly lower (17.93% less) than 2010.