Friday 7 December 2012

To "Legitimacy" Pro-Morsy Supporters

Our Democratically Elected Dictator

Simple Argument to those saying you’re backing Morsy for "Legitimacy" (الشرعية ) , and claiming that the opposition don't respect "Democracy";

What has more legitimacy? The referendum in March 2011 with 77% approval with majority of eligible voters voting, or Morsy's election win of 52% with a smaller percentage of eligible voters voting? (Not even going to mention his round one percentage of 24.86%)

Obviously the Referendum on the Constitutional declaration of March 2011, right?

Ok, now when people voted for the constitutional declaration, they didn't just vote for a timeline of when things will happen, but for the legality of it as well right? I mean after all what is a constitutional declaration but a legally binding transitional constitution with all that it entails including judicial review of constitutionality of laws issued and the legality of bodies formed by those issued laws?

Obviously they voted for it to be their temporary legally Binding transitional constitution.

Now, When the people voted for their president (in this case Morsy), they voted for him based on his status in the Constitutional declaration, that obviously the majority of the population voted for, right?

Of course they did.

Still with me? Good. Now when a president is elected, swears to respect the constitution and/or ratifies that constitutional declaration, it means he agrees with the legality of the constitutional declaration right? He also agrees and does not deny that it's a legally binding document, and the will of the majority of the people right?

Obviously so. Otherwise he would have neither sworn to respect it and follow it, nor ratified it.

So when the "Elected" president turns dictator (or if you don't like that term, issues a unilateral decree), and stops the courts from issuing verdicts on the legality of the constitutional assembly, or the Shura council, And also submits himself above judicial authority, That basically means he's ignoring the will of the majority of the people that voted to allow the Constitutional Declaration of March 2011 to be their legally binding transitional constitution, with all that it entails including but not limited to Judicial review of legality right?

Of course he is ignoring the will of the majority.

So remind me again, how is it Morsy's actions have any form of "Legitimacy" with the majority? How is it a factor of "Legitimacy" again? How are Morsy's actions "Respecting Democracy"?

But I hear you say "The Judges are corrupt! They want to bring Morsy down!" Well...

  • Those Judges declared that Morsy won the elections.
  • Those Judges supervised every election in which the MB won a majority.
  • Morsy does not have a super majority (75% + of votes) in order to legally (or Illegally) claim his unilateral decree of dictatorship to be a popular mandate. 
  • Most importantly, Judges cannot judge without the law and facts presented. In other words  if a Judge gives an illegal verdict, it can be easily proven with the facts publicly available on the case. In fact, they STATE clearly which Constitutional Articles/laws and such they based their decision upon. So why are you afraid of them again?

Again I ask, how is it Morsy's actions have any form of "Legitimacy" with the majority? How is it a factor of "Legitimacy" again? How are Morsy's actions "Respecting Democracy"?

Kindly use your brains before they atrophy. 

Sunday 25 November 2012

مصر؛ لقد أتت حرب أهلية

الدكتاتور المصري المنتخب ديمقراطيا 

كما تعلمون جميعا ، لقد قرر مرسي أن يهدى نفسه قوة دكتاتورية خارقة، القرار الذي أدى اللي توحيد جميع القوة الغير متأسلمة ضده 

ونتيجة لهذا ولعوامل أخرى كثيرة، يخشى أن مصر سوف تنزلق الى حرب أهلية ولكن الواقع هو إن حرب أهلية من "الاحتجاجات" أو "حرب الأرقام" قد بدأت بالفعل، لا يوجد أدنى شك في إن الإخوان المسلمين هم الذين بدأوا ذلك.
 مربط الفرس هو دمنهور وأسيوط

جزء من حجة الإخوان هي أن مصر ليست القاهرة، ويعلنون إن إلغالبية التي تدعمهم خارج القاهرة، و لكن حدوث الاحتجاجات في وقت واحد في جميع أنحاء مصر يدحض هذا الادعاء الكاذب

ألحقيقة هي إن الإخوان المسلمين غير قادرين على حشد أعداد كافية لمواجهة الأعداد التي   يمكن لخصومهم حشدها داخل القاهرة بدون الاحتياج إلي جلب مؤيديهم من المحافظات الأخرى

على وجه الخصوص، تتركز قاعدة قوة الإخوان بشكل رئيسي في المناطق الريفية، في حين غالبا تتركز قواعد قوة  معارضتهم في المناطق المدنيه ،و الواقع إن محافظة القاهرة هي أكثر  محافظة مصرية تمدنا

على هذا النحو، تمثل المظاهرات المتفرقة في المحافظات معارك مستقلة في الحرب الشاملة. وتفتقد جماعةالإخوان المسلمين القدرة على حشد أعداد كافية للمحاربة  في القاهرة و باقي المحافظات في نفس الوقت

ونتيجة لهذا فقد دعت جماعة الإخوان المسلمين مؤيديهم إلى التظاهر في المحافظات في اليومين المقبلين، بحيث يمكن الفوز في معارك المحافظات قبل مظاهرة معارضي مرسى الكبرى  في القاهرة يوم الثلاثاء، حتى يتمكنوا من الاستعانة وتجييش قواتهم من المحافظات في معركة القاهرة  "الكبرى"

النقاط السابقة تشرح بوضوح لماذا يحاول الإخوان المسلمون حاليا تدمير المعارضة في دمنهور وأسيوط، التي تعد تقليديا قواعد لقوة الإخوان

إذا نجحت خطة الإخوان المسلمين للفوز في معارك المحافظات قبل يوم الثلاثاء ستصبح نتيجة المعركة الرئيسية في القاهرة محسومة، لأنهم سوف يكونون قادرين على الاستعانة بمؤيديهم من المحافظات و"إظهار" أن لديهم ما يكفي من الدعم في القاهرة لتقترب من اذا لم تتمكن من ان تساوي او تعادل اعداد معارضة مرسى في القاهرة، مثلما حاولوا يوم الجمعة الماضي

انها استراتيجية حربيه جذريه؛ إلى جانب استراتيجية فرق تسد في هذه الحالة، فإنهم يحاولون تقليل قوة وعدد معارضتهم من خلال الاستفادة من من يطلق عليهم تعبير "البلهاء المفيدين" لخلق اشتباكات داخل المعارضة وتقسيمها إلى مخيمات "فلول" و "ثوار"

"نعم، إنها لم تصل بعد إلي ان تكون حرب دموية فعلية، لكن لا يوجد شك إنها "حرب أهلية
النسخة الإنجليزية موجودة هنا 

Saturday 24 November 2012

Egypt: A "Civil War" is here.

Our "Democratically elected" Dictator

As you all know Morsy has decided to bestow upon himself dictatorial (super) powers, that have united all non-islamist powers against him.

Due to this and many other factors, it is feared that Egypt will descend into Civil war, but the reality is a Civil war of "protests" or "Numbers" has already started, have no doubt the MB (Muslim Brotherhood) are the ones who started it. The keys to this are Damanhur and Assiut.

Part of the MB's Argument is that Egypt is not Cairo, and they proclaim the majority support them outside of Cairo, However simultaneous protests all over Egypt would disprove this false claim.

The fact is the MB are unable to rally enough numbers to counter the numbers their opponents can rally inside Cairo without busing in their supporters from the other Governorates.

In particular, The MB's power base is mainly in rural areas, while their opposition is usually concentrated in urban areas. As a fact, Cairo is the most urbanized governorate of any Egyptian governorate.

As such, protests in each governorate are independent battles in the general war. The MB lacks the ability to rally enough numbers to fight in both the governorates and Cairo simultaneously.

Due to this The MB have called for protests in the governorates in the next two days, so that they can win the battles of the governorates before the major anti-Morsy protest in Cairo on Tuesday, so they can in turn utilize their strength from the governorates in the "Major" Cairo battle.

The previous points clearly explain why the MB are currently attempting to destroy opposition in Damanhur and Assiut, which are traditionally MB strong holds.

If the MB plan to win the battles in the governorates before Tuesday is successful, then by default the outcome of the major battle of Cairo is moot, because they will then be able to successfully rally their governorate supporters and "Show" that they have enough support in Cairo to come close to if not match the Anti-Morsy opposition in Cairo, much like they did on Friday.

It's a basic war strategy. Combined with the divide and conquer strategy; in this instance, they are attempting to decrease the strength and numbers of their opposition by utilizing “Useful Idiots” to create clashes within the opposition dividing them into "Feloul" and "Revolutionary" camps.

Yes, it may not have come down to an actual bloody war yet have no doubt; this is a "Civil War"


Arabic Version available here 

Thursday 11 October 2012

Coining terms For Current day Egypt

In an effort to ease communication in the wild world of Egyptian politics today, I've decided to coin a few terms:

Nouveau-Feloul Noun

Pronunciationnoo-voh Fe-lool

Definition: Someone who upon seeing the state of post-revolution Egypt decided that the Mubarak regime was much better, blames the revolution for all the ills of society, while having no previous or current personal gain (Financial or otherwise) from the Mubarak/SCAF Regime.

Notes: A Nouveau-Feloul is usually someone was was formerly of the "Kanaba Party", Disappointed Secular minded individuals (Regardless of opinion on the revolution) , Islamophobes , or Contrarians. Their conversion into Nouveau-Feloul is usually due to feeling threatened  (Legitimately or otherwise) by Islamists being in power.

Faux-nadel Noun



  1. Someone who pretends to be a Revolutionary or Activist, usually on social media, for personal gain or fame while doing no actual work.
  2. Someone who pretends to be a Revolutionary or Activist, usually on social media, while being completely or partially against the cause they claim to fight for. 

Notes: A Faux-nadel can be someone cashing in on the revolution in hopes of gaining some kind of financial or material gain, but is usually someone who is playing the role of a double agent intending to discredit or destroy the cause they claim to represent.

Quasi-wan Noun

Pronunciation:  kwah-see-wan


  1. Someone who pretends to have been pro-Muslim Brotherhood for years for the sole reason that they are now in power, usually claim to have been forced to hide his/her former allegiance out of fear.
  2. Someone that supports the Muslim Brotherhood due to ignorance and/or fear of Secularism & Liberalism.   

Notes: A Quasi-wan is usually someone that will side with whoever is in power, but can also be someone that fears Secularism & Liberalism and sees the Muslim Brotherhood as the only force that can prevent both from spreading in Egypt.

Tuesday 26 June 2012

Egypt: An Epilogue

Picture via Metal Traveler

Egypt: An epilogue.

This is an epilogue about the last period in Egypt. Not the last two years. But perhaps the last ten or maybe even the last thousand. I while writing this am embarking on a journey with my mind in which I’m not quite sure where I’m headed, somewhat akin to the wandering drifter that has a vague idea of what the destination may be, but no idea what the path leading there will look like, and only a basic storybook like vision of what the destination may be. In case you may have not noticed, I am about to wax poetic, and while it is based on facts, this is not a factual straightforward post like my usual posts are.

A while ago while sitting with one of my best friends, he asked me to think of one word to describe the situation in Egypt. The word came instantly to my mind with no resistance: Hubris.

For indeed if one was to look at the recent history of Egypt alone (not to mention the trends and mindsets of a sizeable portion of Egyptians that may or may not refuse to admit when they don’t know the answer to something, even if it’s mundane and archaic)  the one word that springs to mind is hubris.

And it is hubris on all levels and shapes, starting from Mubarak, who had he listened to the initial demands at the start of the January 25th uprising in Egypt, Instead of maintaining the arrogance to assume he could and would withstand and survive the uprising where Bin Ali of Tunisia failed, would still be our president or even former president, instead of languishing in a (admittedly 5 star) prison hospital with the title of the “deposed president”.

To the hubris of the former ruling class and party, the NDP (and for the record, the MB as well), who along with Mubarak saw no reason to reform, seeing themselves as the educated civilized class, ruling arrogantly over the uneducated barbaric masses, ignoring the fact that they themselves were to blame for the population becoming uneducated, hungry and aggressive, but never uncivilized and barbaric, at least not yet. Where in the eyes of Mubarak and the NDP, the( admittedly ) somewhat successful initial few years of their reign, were enough to make up for any wrong doing they may have done, that is, if they ever even understood how wrong and guilty they were.

To the hubris of some of the revolutionaries, that fell prey to the lights shined in their faces, that believed in the deceitful (but not without merit) glory heaped upon them by the foreign media, by think tanks, by even their own people, forgetting that glory and fame are fleeting, and that today’s hero may go down in the history books as yesterday’s villain.  Arrogant enough the entire time to ignore the needs and wants of a population at large, believing on some level that if they rose up, the population would rise with them no matter what, that they were the new leaders, that they had what it takes to be a leader, dismissing the hunger, fear, and basic human requirements of the population the entire time.  Failing on multiple levels to win over the hearts and minds of the very people they assumed to lead,  failing to realize they needed their unconditional support to take on an enemy that was much older, much more experienced, and much more devious and powerful.

To the hubris of the population itself, specifically a sizeable section of middle aged and elderly, who still insist that they know better than their children, never learning the lessons of their forefathers. Refusing to admit that their children suffer today for their past and present mistakes. Refusing to throw their lot in with that of the revolutionaries who they believed were wrong, and instead demanding that the youth of the revolution should throw their lot in with them instead, never even thinking that they may be wrong, and as such, asking the youth of the revolution to do the same thing they themselves refuse to do.  Never willing to accept that the mistakes of the youth are part of the learning process, whitewashing their own mistakes all the while. For they had the chance to make their own mistakes (which they did and which led us to where we are today), but in their hubris they refuse to allow the youth their chance to make their own mistakes, to solve the problems they themselves are responsible for and have long since given up on really finding answers to, for they recognize the illness, but do not have the cure, even while pretending even to their own psyches that they do. They refused to leave their comfort zone. They refused to step aside.

To the hubris of the emerging secular political parties, that believed that with their sharpened sticks, and stitched armor, they could hold ground or even overcome a behemoth entirely on their own.  Arguing and dividing over minor issues, while the leviathan picked them off one by one, and spit out their bones as a warning. Losing parliamentary seats and positions because they refused to listen to the well prepared and well defined plans and council of a youth (among many) of their own ranks.  Dwindling in power because they refused to see the battlefield as it is. Refused to understand that to win a war, one must replenish the ranks of the fallen with new strong blood, instead of attempting to reanimate and polish the corpses of the fallen.

To the hubris of the Islamic forces, that believe that they  are the true source of religion, and as such that they know better than anyone else, that they in a way have the true word of God, while all else have a deviant facsimile of the word, if they even have the word at all. Believing that their struggles are the only true legitimate struggles, brushing off all others. Relishing in the bask of their (deceitful) new found power, playing down the legitimate fears of a large section of the population, believing them to be falsified and manufactured, refusing to see the truth in that fear.  Refusing to truly look into a mirror and seeing what their fellow countrymen see and fear.

To the hubris of the SCAF, hubris derived from their power, hubris that led them to believe since the 1950’s that they are in a manner the only true path. That what is good for them is good for the country, seeing the population as infants that must be raised in the manner they desire, or they will be lost, that they are the fathers of this strong willed rebellious infantile and adolescent population, that they can and must guide, punish and manipulate the child into following and revering the will and instructions of the father, conveniently ignoring that if said belief were to ring true, that the children almost always pay for the sins of the father. Never once behaving like a true selfless father does, but instead behaving like a selfish father that begets children as labor, to profit off their sweat and vitality, while providing his children with just enough sustenance to survive, but not enough to thrive.

Hubris is everywhere in Egypt, permeating all manner of thought and life. It is hubris that causes us to stumble over debris and obstacles that we either fail to notice or arrogantly ignore; believing that our ill shielded legs can plow through them like an elephant among wild grass. It is hubris that causes all of us to suffer, be it our own hubris, or the hubris of others around us.

I must admit the title of this piece is misleading, for it is in a sense an epilogue for all that has passed, but in another it is a prologue for all that is yet to come. For it is not an ending. There are no true endings. But it is not a beginning either, for how can there be a beginning when there is no true end? Epilogue or prologue, at the end of the day, it all comes back to one word: Hubris.

Saturday 26 May 2012

Don't panic and carry a Bashkeer : The results of the Presidential Elections

image via Golden Pharaoh company in Egypt 

Don't panic and carry a Bashkeer 

Egyptian authorities released the preliminary final results of the 1st real presidential election in the history of Egypt on May 25th (compiled and detailed here by Iyad Elbaghdadi). Ironically May 25th is also the worldwide "Towel Day", a day coined and celebrated by fans of Douglas Adam's classic series "The hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy". The concept of towel day comes from the caption on the guide in the books that reads "Don't panic, and carry a towel". While I can't really vouch for the benefits of carrying a towel, I can tell you why you shouldn't panic.

I admit, I personally expected the run off to be between Former Prime minister and military man Ahmed Shafiq, and the Muslim brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsy (It was very naive to assume that the regime, that has been trying to frame the situation internally and internationally as "It's us or the Islamists" for as long as can be remembered would allow two other candidates to reach the run offs, at least not without a real fight), but what I did not expect, and what came as a surprise, was the poor performance of Amr Moussa, and the amazing performance of Hamdeen Sabbahi. This is important for a reason, so take note.

While I have previously stated bluntly that the referendum in March 2011 and the parliamentary elections were fraudulent (And I’ve been repeatedly attacked for saying this, apparently facts be damned), it is unlikely due to the large amount of votes for so few candidates, that the presidential elections will be as fraudulent. Election violations? Sure. Propaganda? Definitely. Outright fraud? Doubtful. This again, is an important point.

Fraud aside, the fact that everyone seems keen to overlook is that one of the main reasons for the success of Islamists in parliamentary elections (Fraud and campaign violations aside), is not primarily due to a love of Islamists; rather, the rise occurred because people wanted to vote Mubarak's political party, the NDP out, and found the Salafis and Muslim brotherhood to be their best most organized chance to do so.

Another aspect everyone seems to overlook; who turned a blind eye to illegal religious campaigning? Who turned a blind eye to vote buying through charity networks or otherwise? Who sat down and conducted agreements with the Islamists from day one? It is entirely naive to assume that the regime did not want an Islamist candidate, after all, who would you rather fight; someone you can defeat easily, or someone that is a real challenge? Again, I'm not saying the results are Fraudulent (Yet), I'm saying this was engineered. Big difference.

By all means, this was an election of opposites; it was Moussa VS Fetouh (For "Liberals"). Shafiq VS Morsy (For conservatives), with Sabbahi being in the middle. The trend apparently was you vote for one because you oppose or fear the other, not exactly because you're convinced of one or the other. Luckily ElShater and Soliman took each other out early on. I am convinced a majority of those that voted for Shafiq, did not do so out of love for the man, rather they did so out of a belief that he is the only man capable of standing against the Muslim brotherhood, and bringing back stability. Shafiq would not have that amount of voter support if Morsy did not exist. Rudimentary polling of Shafiq voters backs my hypothesis on this matter.

What is most impressive about Sabbahi's strong standing is that according to election monitoring groups, Sabbahi's campaign conducted the least election violations of all the candidates (With Morsy and Shafiq's campaigns conducting the most); this is yet another crucial point.

All that aside, let's look at some facts:

1- Those who were monitoring the public vibe, expected the run off to be between Morsy and Shafiq. That was a given considering the MB charity machine, and the use of state media to polish up Shafiq.

2- A candidate's campaign that conducted the least amount of campaign violations (Sabbahi) came in 3rd with a relatively small gap between him and the 2nd (Shafiq) whose campaign is one of the highest violators.

3- A Candidate (Sabbahi) that does not have the power of a charity (Bribery) network, or state media (Propaganda Machine) behind him, came in 3rd. Candidates with more or less the same criteria came in 4th and 5th. Do not underestimate the intelligence of the population.

4- Even with all the propaganda, fear mongering & failures of the liberal movements and revolutionaries, Over 50% of the population combined did not vote for an MB candidate (Morsy) nor the Regime candidate (Shafiq), yes I realize the election turnout was relatively low, and that this isn't the entire population, but it's like you're conducting a poll with a sample size of over 18 million. So yes, I can safely assume over 50% of the population. In other words, over 50% of the population is on the side of freedom and dignity, not the side of bribes or fear. Compare that to percentage of the population that took part in the 18 days, and you'll see that matters are not as bleak as they seem, in fact this in particular makes me the most optimistic. And yes, like it or not, Moussa counts. If anything Moussa is the chosen of non-Islamist reformists.

5- Egyptian politics are not clear cut; the reason for the vast difference in trends between the referendum, parliamentary elections, and presidential elections are due to the complex network of ideologies, loyalties, and thought processes that overlap and diverge on different points.

6- If each candidate represents their ideology, then the MB has a 26.38% approval rating, The Military and former regime have a 23.00% approval rating (four times lower than what various polls have been stating for over a year, then again, almost every poll conducted in Egypt so far has been completely wrong, so why wouldn't this one be?), and the ideals of the revolution have a combined approval rating of 50.62%.

With all that said, I cannot understand how with so many positive indications, some people are so pessimistic. Did those people really believe the idea that the "majority of the population is against the revolution" was true?  Did they not see that the majority of the population is not against the ideals of the revolution, rather that they had grown tired, weary, and had reached their limit with the lack of security and the deterioration of the economy? Did those same people naively think we would achieve the goals of a revolution (against 60 years of rule) in less than 18 months?

What is even more mind boggling and frustrating, is how many people are now falling for the regime line of "It's us or the Islamists". I'm sure our memory spans are not so short that we've forgotten that they've been using the same line for the last 60 years, while suppressing any real secular opposition. Yes the Islamists are a threat, but so is the regime. Have you already forgotten the Mubarak doctrine? These people are now arguing with one another and their families on who is worse, Shafiq or Morsy, stating the pros and cons of each, but in this situation, there are no pros and cons, they're both horrid. Those people have resigned themselves to the idea that our rape is inevitable and instead of finding solutions (i.e. a way to prevent the rape), or at the very least noticing the positive indicators, they're arguing which of our potential rapists has a smaller penis.

So no, the situation is not bleak, in fact, it's quite the opposite, if anything, we've reached our strongest point yet; there are so many (non-protest) ways we can make sure neither Shafiq nor Morsy rape us. In fact, I believe that even if the so called "Elite" fail to stop their panic, the populace by large, will NOT sit around and allow whoever the president is to rape us. Rather, they may rape the president if he tries any funny business.

After all, Politics is a game of shifting agreements, incentives and loyalties; If Shafiq wins, the MB will be forced to side with the majority if Shafiq acts up or they risk isolating and killing themselves. If Morsy wins, the Army will be forced to side with the majority if Morsy acts up or they risk losing their alleged popularity among the people. Yes. The opposition may end up in control. That is of course, if the regime and the MB don't unite together that is. Like they did in the referendum. Like they may do now.

So yes, call me a dreamer if you want, but I’m still betting on the Egyptian people, the same way I did during the 18 days, and after the results of the presidential election, I’ve been pleasantly surprised. All this, and it's still possible some unexpected surprise could happen, like if this alleged voter donation loop hole turns out to be true, or if the non-MB, non-regime candidates decide to form some kind of super band opposition movement, mobilizing all their followers. Or so many other admittedly farfetched scenarios, then again, January 25th was pretty farfetched, wasn't it?

So don’t panic, Enjoy the ride, and if you want... Carry a bashkeer. 

Monday 14 May 2012

Predictions if Ahmed Shafiq wins.

Yes you can consider it a conspiracy theory. My last one was pretty damn accurate.

I honestly now think there's a high chance the run off (if we reach it) will be between Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. It will not be due to merit by any of them, (In fact they may very well be our two worst choices) but it will be because of the sinister tactics both campaign camps are following. One needs only to look at how Egyptian Media is polishing Shafiq up, or to realize how the wide scale MB charity network is working overtime to make Morsi out as a savior, to realize what I mean.

However if Ahmed Shafiq wins I predict the following will occur:

1- He will dissolve the Parliament & Shura council...
...Of course he won't do so directly, but the court case on the constitutional legality of parliament & Shura will reach a verdict, and will decide it needs to be dissolved and as the executive power he will "Have no choice but to" dissolve it.

2- Mass protests will occur...
...mainly by Islamists against the Parliament and Shura being dissolved. The leftists, secularists, and liberals will have little reason to side with the Islamists because of their actions during the presidential election season at least, if not due to their actions throughout the last year and a half.

3- Massive crack down on said protests will occur...
.... Which will lead to the imprisonment of a large amount of people, mainly anyone who calls/called for the protests, under the anti-protest law that the parliament has approved (shooting themselves in the foot). Even if no one actually calls for the protests, it'll be used as an excuse to round up the Islamist leaders and a large amount of their followers. This will be done with the support of the majority of the populace that will see the election of a new president as the end of the transitional period, and hence the end of the need for any protests.

4- A Terrorist attack will occur...
....Similar to the Saints church bombing in January 2010. It will be on a much larger scale and affect a larger amount of people. Will prompt massive crackdown on any dissident, especially of the Islamist variety. As a result public opinion of Islamists will plummet. Whatever remaining Islamists will be locked away, with the blessing of the (Now terrified) populace.

5- Some kind of external threat will occur...
... Be it some kind of "disagreement" with Israel or Libya, problems with armed groups in Sinai, or some kind of violence flowing over the Sudan boarder. Cue an increase of nationalism, patriotism and army support. Note: We already are having problems on our boarders with Libya and in Sinai.

6- The reactivation of the Emergency Law...
....The emergency law was not removed. Rather it was "deactivated", After the events listed in points 3 to 5, it will be reactivated once again.

7- The real end of the revolution...
.... At this point, people are going to wonder, What revolution?  Sure the press will be a bit more "free" , Judicial matters will appear to be more transparent and fair, but for all intents and purposes we'll be back at square one. It'll all be superficial change.

I hope to God I'm wrong.

I'll probably write one for each candidate when I can. Note that this possible scenario MAY occur regardless of which candidate wins with some obvious differences. Even with Shafiq there may be some slight differences.

Thursday 9 February 2012

Feb 11th 2012: Just to make a few things clear.

(I copied this from something I wrote on Facebook, I'll add links later when I have time, although most of the data can be found through google)

In regards to the Strike being called for on the 11th, just a few things for you to get straight.

1- A general strike is not going to destroy Egypt's economy. Protests and strikes are not going to destroy Egypt's economy. Go Ask France if their country crippling strikes a few years ago destroyed their economy.

What's been destroying Egypt's Economy at a time where exports, remittances and Suez canal revenue has GROWN, isn't even the drop in tourism (although it has an effect, down by 30%, but hey, who has been running a slander campaign against non-egyptians again?? ), but it's the drop in Foreign direct investments (down 115%) that has caused the most trouble, which is down mainly because of three factors;

A) The Security situation. If a factory can't send millions of EGP worth of products out, without them getting stolen regularly, the factory can't make a profit and will shut down. (They have to resend out stolen merchandise, they have to pay breach of contract fees....etc)

B) The Internet Blackout which caused lots of companies in Egypt to be in breach of contract because they could not provide the services agreed to during the blackout, which pulled contracts, caused companies to pay penalties for breach of contract...etc, and most importantly

C) the extension of the transitional period (the longer it lasts, the worse it'll be) because generally in global economics, companies don't invest in a country going through political upheaval , because the government is what assures terms in contracts are going to be met (ElDamen). If there is an upheaval it means laws will generally change. Ergo, It makes very little logic to invest during a transitional period. Don't believe me? Ask the 150+ multinationals that expressed interest in investing in Egypt AFTER the transitional period ends. If you still don't believe me, Go ask your friendly neighborhood economist. (NOTE: not all companies in Links)

2- Everyone saying "Oh well the strike is going to fail because the Strike has no widespread support because so and so and so said they wouldn't join."
On Jan 24th 2011;

- The Muslim brotherhood said it wasn't going to join.
- The Salafis said they weren't going to join.
- The Azhar spoke out against it
- Pope Shenouda Spoke out against it
- The Mufti spoke out against it
- Political experts (like the oh so beloved Amr Hamzawy) said "We're not like Tunisia, it won't happen here"
- We (Yes even myself) said nothing was going to happen because we didn't believe there was going to be widespread support.
- We said "Just a few thousand are going to protest, and they'll get arrested and it'll be over"
- We said the uneducated and the poor aren't going to join because they can't afford to, or are afraid to...etc
- We said the people will hate the protesters.
- The list goes on and on.

Then Jan 25th 2011 came along.

3- If it worked for other countries, there's no real reason it can't work for us if done right. This entire concept of "What works in X doesn't work in Egypt" is just our ego talking. We're not better than other countries. We're not worse than other countries. We're a country like all other countries.

But I digress;
I could be wrong. You could be totally right. I just refuse to let pessimism and apathy rule me.