Monday 14 May 2012

Predictions if Ahmed Shafiq wins.

Yes you can consider it a conspiracy theory. My last one was pretty damn accurate.

I honestly now think there's a high chance the run off (if we reach it) will be between Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. It will not be due to merit by any of them, (In fact they may very well be our two worst choices) but it will be because of the sinister tactics both campaign camps are following. One needs only to look at how Egyptian Media is polishing Shafiq up, or to realize how the wide scale MB charity network is working overtime to make Morsi out as a savior, to realize what I mean.

However if Ahmed Shafiq wins I predict the following will occur:

1- He will dissolve the Parliament & Shura council...
...Of course he won't do so directly, but the court case on the constitutional legality of parliament & Shura will reach a verdict, and will decide it needs to be dissolved and as the executive power he will "Have no choice but to" dissolve it.

2- Mass protests will occur...
...mainly by Islamists against the Parliament and Shura being dissolved. The leftists, secularists, and liberals will have little reason to side with the Islamists because of their actions during the presidential election season at least, if not due to their actions throughout the last year and a half.

3- Massive crack down on said protests will occur...
.... Which will lead to the imprisonment of a large amount of people, mainly anyone who calls/called for the protests, under the anti-protest law that the parliament has approved (shooting themselves in the foot). Even if no one actually calls for the protests, it'll be used as an excuse to round up the Islamist leaders and a large amount of their followers. This will be done with the support of the majority of the populace that will see the election of a new president as the end of the transitional period, and hence the end of the need for any protests.

4- A Terrorist attack will occur...
....Similar to the Saints church bombing in January 2010. It will be on a much larger scale and affect a larger amount of people. Will prompt massive crackdown on any dissident, especially of the Islamist variety. As a result public opinion of Islamists will plummet. Whatever remaining Islamists will be locked away, with the blessing of the (Now terrified) populace.

5- Some kind of external threat will occur...
... Be it some kind of "disagreement" with Israel or Libya, problems with armed groups in Sinai, or some kind of violence flowing over the Sudan boarder. Cue an increase of nationalism, patriotism and army support. Note: We already are having problems on our boarders with Libya and in Sinai.

6- The reactivation of the Emergency Law...
....The emergency law was not removed. Rather it was "deactivated", After the events listed in points 3 to 5, it will be reactivated once again.

7- The real end of the revolution...
.... At this point, people are going to wonder, What revolution?  Sure the press will be a bit more "free" , Judicial matters will appear to be more transparent and fair, but for all intents and purposes we'll be back at square one. It'll all be superficial change.

I hope to God I'm wrong.

I'll probably write one for each candidate when I can. Note that this possible scenario MAY occur regardless of which candidate wins with some obvious differences. Even with Shafiq there may be some slight differences.


  1. hello, I work for a free political leaflet distributed with Identity magazine with content all from blogs
    Can I use ur post and mention of course your blog as the source for it?
    No editing or changing content

    1. I'm not sure if you saw my tweet, but Feel free to use whatever you like. Just please give me a link to a scan of the leaflet or something if possible. Thanks.